Is the Bitcoin Ride Finally Ending? Yeah, Maybe.
By John H. Robinson, Financial Planner (June 6, 2026)
Let me cut to the chase, I believe there is a better than 50-50 chance that Bitcoin will never sniff its previous all-time high again. Before I explain why, I should first explain that I am not a “Perma-Bear” skeptic like Peter Schiff who had strong words today on the future of Bitcoin and the value of wisdom espoused by Bitcoin millionaires.
I am a professional financial planner who has been justifiably deliberate in my approach to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general for the unassailable reason that my job is to not make mistakes with other people’s money. I have pushed back whenever I have read or heard people calling out JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon for being out of touch and past his time for his 2021 skepticism of the validity of cryptocurrency. In his defense, Bitcoin fell 80 percent not long after he made those comments, and the broader crypto market fell even further. In fact, if one spends a just a little time understanding the history of Bitcoin you will find that it has faced five near extinction events since it was launched in the famous Papa John’s transaction on May 22, 2010.
The Best Investment of All Time: The History of Bitcoin (Aquired Podcast, January 18, 2021)
With respect to the first four events, Bitcoin did not emerge from the wreckage on the strength of its design or value to society. In truth, each of these events were precipitated by demand for questionable use-cases and its recovery from each was the result of a remarkable amount of serendipity. In my opinion, the fifth and most recent collapse in 2022 was different. It was similar in that it was precipitated by massive widespread fraud due to a complete lack of regulatory oversight, but it was different insofar as it brought regulation and enforcement into the market space and, in turn, institutional adoption including the rollout of several spot price ETFs in January 2024. The latter created a network effect that allowed Bitcoin to achieve global acceptance and adoption as a legitimate asset class on scale that is unmatched by any other cryptocurrency, including Ethereum. It was at that point that I first became open to including Bitcoin (and only Bitcoin) in client portfolios in ETF form. Here is my article from December 2024.
Is Bitcoin a LegitimateAsset Class? IMO, Yes.
Per the Acquired podcast, it became clear to me that Bitcoin had unique structural characteristics, including scarcity, electronic transfer, global acceptance, that, to my thinking gave it a real use cases with a potentially limitless market. In a subsequent post below, I specifically developed a use case for bitcoin as a hedging asset similar to gold. In the most extreme scenario, one might even imagine that it could be a safe haven in the face of a severe black swan event such as a U.S. national debt-driven death spiral.
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I also made a rosier suggestion that its fungibility and liquidity might even make it suitable as a speculative investment akin to buying an AI stock today. Bitcoin reached its all-time high of nearly $126,000 per coin on October 2025… And then the music stopped.
The 6th (Crypto) Extinction
It is not as if the need for a potential disaster hedge evaporated. There are still plenty of existential threats to our economy out there, including the aforementioned debt apocalypse. To be fair, it could be argued that it just rose too fast. Gold has declined a little over 20% since its peak in late January 2026. But Bitcoin is down more than 50% with little indication that the slide is over. So what caused the Bitcoin price decline?
The short answer is nothing. There is no single identifiable cause for why demand for Bitcoin suddenly fell off the table. And there in lies my thesis. Unlike previous Crypto winters, this potential extinction event appears to have been driven by lack of demand. In other words, people simply have lost interest. This does seem to be the leading theory, and it may not be a coincidence that the decline corresponds the logarithmic increase in popularity of the prediction markets, particularly around the generation of adults who were previously active crypto traders. It seems reasonable to conclude that he speculative segment of the crypto market may have simply moved on to the next shiny object.
Another theory is that the derivative markets that have developed around cryptocurrencies, and, particularly Bitcoin, have made it easy to include bitcoin in one’s portfolio without actually buying Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., Bitcoin Futures). This is also entirely plausible. At the time of the subprime mortgage market collapse in 2008, the total market value of the mortgages was about $1.2 trillion while derivatives on those mortgages total $5 trillion. A 4:1 difference between the virtual value and the actual value. If he derivatives buying replaces demand for the underlying asset, guess what happens to the price of the asset?
That is not the exactly the case with Bitcoin, as the derivatives value is estimated to be only 2-3% of the total Bitcoin market value. However, the transactions turnover stats may be more illuminating as derivatives trading accounts for approximately 75% of the daily transaction volume in Bitcoin.
There may be other contributing factors as well, but I do believe these two theses are the most plausible. In fact, in looking back I remember that I had a nagging thought that I suppressed when Bitcoin was riding its wave of unbridled optimism. That nagging thought pertained to the exceedingly limited supply of Bitcoin – roughly 18-19 million after accounting conservatively for permanently lost digital keys and unmined coins – was that it seemed like the price should be rising faster. (Yes, I am aware that Bitcoin are divisible into Satoshis, but they are not dilutive.)
Summary and My Two Cents on Why the Bitcoin Ride May Be Over
In the absence of an imminent black swan event that might rekindle demand for Bitcoin, I believe demand will continue to dry up. The lack of an obvious trigger event for its decline leaves one wanting for reasons for it to rebound, especially if the speculative part of the market has moved on. Buy and hold (“HODLING”) of Bitcoin may be akin to waiting for cannabis or dotcom stocks to recover.
As you can see, I was far from an early adopter, and I have been wrong in my assessment of Bitcoin along the way. While I am not a Perma Bear like Peter Schiff (aka Dr. Doom), I am certainly not an expert on Bitcoin or crypto. I am, however, still a financial planner, and I am still tasked with responsibly overseeing a fair amount of other people’s money.
With respect to the use of Bitcoin as either a hedging tool or an investment, I walked back my original optimism back in February in my What’s Up with Bitcoin? post. This missive double down on that theme. Is it okay to continue to hold a little bitcoin as a disaster hedge. Sure. In that sense, it probably has a better shot a redemption than cannabis or dot com stocks. Obviously, you should still hope that doesn’t happen.
What about if you bought Bitcoin six months ago and it is down 50% - should you buy on the dip? I am always careful not to talk investors out of taking a speculative flyer. I don’t have a crystal ball, and I definitely don’t want to be the guy who kept you from getting rich by telling you not to buy when Bitcoin was down. However, to be clear, the days of me recommending new money going into Bitcoin for any purpose are likely done.
John H. Robinson is the founder of Financial Planning Hawaii and Fee-Only Planning Hawaii